Trump’s top dealmaker’s fate hangs in high‑stakes tariff showdown

The Trump Tariff 90‑Deal Quest

The Donald Trump administration set out at the start of its second term to reshape U.S. trade with the world, but the main outcomes have been discord and uncertainty.

Trump’s aggressive tariff strategy promised “90 deals in 90 days.” The reality? Two deals, three if you count a temporary de‑escalation agreement with China.

Delays and the TACO Theory

• Trump extended the tariff deadline from July 9 to August 1 – the second extension since the tariffs were unveiled in April.
• The extension reignited the TACO Theory, coined by a Financial Times writer to stand for “Trump Always Chickens Out.” The theory highlights Trump’s tendency to roll back policies when markets sour.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has reportedly advocated for the pauses.

Trump’s Letter Campaign

Trump published more than 20 letters dictating tariff rates to world leaders, including Japan, South Korea, Indonesia, the EU, Canada, Mexico and Brazil.

He wrote, “We invite you to participate in the extraordinary Economy of the United States, the Number One Market in the World, by far.”

The letters appear to be Trump’s way of combating the TACO label, according to Inu Manak, a fellow for trade policy at the Council on Foreign Relations.

Political Complications

Trump has shifted his rhetoric from “no cost – the foreigners pay the tariffs” to “short‑term cost, long‑term gain,” putting him in a more politically complicated position, said William Reinsch, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

Reinsch warned that without trade agreements Americans could conclude Trump’s strategy was flawed.

Deflecting Attention with New Tariffs

Meanwhile, Trump announced a 50 % levy on copper imports starting August 1 and opted to let officials conclude investigations into semiconductors and pharmaceuticals, potentially leading to further tariffs.

“That timing is not coincidental – it lines up with the new deadline of August 1, adding more pressure and deflecting attention from any lack of deals that get made in that time frame,” added Manak.

What Voters Will Pay Attention To

Analysts believe Trump’s supporters will not focus on trade talks unless tariffs fuel inflation. Emily Benson, head of strategy at Minerva Technology Futures, said, “Trade policy is not top‑of‑mind for the average voter.”

However, if Trump follows through on the August tariff threats, voters may react negatively, potentially wiping out market confidence.