Trump predicts 50/50 odds of US‑EU trade deal
Trade Deal Outlook: Trump vs EU
Trump’s 50/50 Stance
President Donald Trump announced a 50 percent probability of an agreement with the European Union on Friday. The inference came after the EU’s Chief Commissioner Ursula von der Leyen scheduled a weekend meeting with the president in Scotland.
Timeline and Agreements
- Trump promised to launch “90 deals in 90 days” but so far revealed only five major agreements: Britain, Japan, the Philippines, and two other partners.
- U.S. tariffs are set to hit 30 percent on EU goods if a pact isn’t finalized by August 1.
- The EU’s current baseline tariff ceiling for U.S. imports is a 15 percent levy, with potential carve‑outs for critical sectors.
EU Response and Potential Retaliation
The bloc’s 27 member states approved a retaliation package totaling $109 billion (93 billion euros) of U.S. goods. This package is slated to take effect on August 7 if talks stall. The U.S. and EU are inching toward a deal, yet the threat of 30 percent tariffs remains looming.
Key Dynamics
- Trump’s administration stresses that tariffs on other countries translate into sales taxes for U.S. consumers by way of importers.
- Trump indicated that most agreements are already in place, though he clarified that the focus is on lettering tariffs rather than negotiating free trade agreements.
- Negotiators have worked diligently with EU officials, yet the president noted that luck has not perfectly aligned in discussions with Canada and the 35 percent tariff threat against that country.
