Trump EU chief blaze through tariffs showdown

US President Donald Trump Meets EU Leader Ursula von der Leyen in Scotland to Resolve Trade Standoff

President Donald Trump has expressed a 50‑50 chance of reaching a trade agreement with the European Union (EU) during a meeting in Turnberry, Scotland, where Trump owns a luxury golf resort. The discussion aims to halt a months‑long transatlantic dispute that could impose a 30‑percent tariff on EU goods if no deal is reached by August 1.

Key Elements of the Negotiation

• Baseline Tariff – A 15‑percent levy on EU exports to the United States, mirroring Japan’s arrangement, with exemptions for aircraft, lumber and spirits (excluding wine).
• US Liquefied Natural Gas – The EU commits to increasing purchases of US LNG as part of investment pledges.
• Steel Quota – A compromise that allows a certain quota to enter the United States, with amounts beyond that taxed at 50 percent.
• Existing US Tariffs – The EU currently faces a 25‑percent levy on cars, 50 percent on steel and aluminium, and an across‑the‑board tariff of 10 percent, threatened to rise to 30 percent under a no‑deal scenario.

EU Strategy to Avoid Sharp Economic Impact

The EU seeks a deal to prevent further sweeping tariffs that could harm its sluggish economy. If talks fail, EU states have authorised counter tariffs on $109 billion (93 billion euros) of US goods, including aircraft and cars, to take effect from August 7. Brussels is also preparing a list of US services that could be targeted.

Trump’s Trade Deal Campaign and Public Perception

• Since returning to office, Trump has pursued a re‑shape of US trade, promising “90 deals in 90 days” and has already unveiled five agreements, including with Britain, Japan and the Philippines.
• Opinion polls indicate a decline in public confidence, with a recent Gallup survey showing Trump’s approval rating at 37 percent, down 10 points from January.
• An EU agreement could serve as a distraction from the controversy surrounding Jeffrey Epstein, the former financier accused of sex trafficking who died in prison in 2019 before facing trial.

Implications for Future Trade Relations

Should a deal materialise, it would mark a significant shift in US‑EU trade dynamics and could release pressure on Trump’s administration to address domestic and international concerns. If negotiations falter, the EU’s counter‑tariffs could signal a major escalation in the ongoing trade conflict, potentially affecting global markets.