Oil market looks saturated after OPEC raises quotas.
The global oil supply is set to rise faster than expected in 2025 and 2026, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA)
IEA’s latest monthly report predicts a 2.5 million‑barrel‑daily increase in worldwide oil output for 2025, surpassing its earlier estimate of 2.1 million barrels per day.
The surge is driven by two main factors:
- OPEP+ members are ramping up production after the cut‑back phase was concluded earlier than forecast.
- Non‑OPEP+ producers are expanding their output as offshore production grows.
These supply dynamics, coupled with concerns about economic tariffs imposed by former U.S. President Donald Trump, have weighed on oil prices this year.
Demand outlook is slower than supply, says IEA
IEA expects global demand to climb by 680,000 barrels per day in 2025, a slight rise from the previously projected 700,000 barrels.
“Demand is mediocre in major economies, and consumer confidence remains depressed, making a strong rebound unlikely,” the agency reports.
IEA’s demand forecasts lie on the lower end of the sector because it anticipates a faster transition to renewable energy sources than its peers.
OPEP’s demand projection remains unchanged
On Tuesday, OPEP maintained its forecast that demand will increase by 1.29 million barrels per day this year.
IEA sees supply outpacing demand next year
The report indicates that supply could exceed demand by almost 3 million barrels per day in 2026, driven by growth in production outside the OPEP+ group and limited demand expansion.
Despite the OPEP+ production boost, non‑OPEP+ producers will continue to lead the global supply growth this year and next, the IEA states.
Refining outlook
Although demand forecasts were cut, the IEA expects world oil refining to approach a historic peak of 85.6 million barrels per day in August.
Information provided by Enes Tunagur; edited by Alex Lawler, Bernadette Baum, and Tomasz Janowski; Spanish edition by Paula Villalba.
