I EA Boosts 2025 Oil‑Supply Forecast After OPEC Decisions

IEA Projects Greater Oil Supply in 2025

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has raised its forecast for global oil supply growth for this year, following OPEC+’s decision to boost production. The agency, which advises industrialised nations, now expects the world’s oil supply to rise by 2.5 million barrels per day (bpj) in 2025, up from the previously stated 2.1 million bpj.

Demand Outlook Shifts

IEA’s monthly report also lowered its demand projections, citing stagnant consumption in major economies and weak consumer confidence.

• Global oil demand growth for 2024 is forecast at 680,000 bpj, down from the earlier 700,000 bpj.
• IEA notes that “a marked rebound appears unlikely” given current demand atone.

Market Reactions

Oil prices briefly intensified losses after the IEA report was released at 08:00 GMT, despite the OPEC+ production increase.

Supply Growth Drivers

IEA says that non-OPEC producers will continue to drive world supply growth this year and next, even as OPEC+ production rises.

Refining Capacity Trends

Although IEA lowered its demand forecast, the agency expects global oil refining to approach a historic record of 85.6 million bpj in August.