Euroviews: If You Want Peace, Prepare for War

Experts Warn of Russia’s Potential Full‑Scale Offensive Against Europe in the Next Five Years

Key Takeaways

• Projection of Attack: Analysts predict that Russia could orchestrate a comprehensive strike on EU and NATO forces within a five‑year window.
• Strategic Gap: Current defense arrangements are deemed insufficient to counter such a large‑scale threat.
• Call for Autonomy: European leaders, including Andrzej Halicki and Andrius Kubilius, advocate for self‑reliant security measures.

Statements from the Experts

“The Russian military’s capabilities are rapidly expanding, and the potential for a decisive offensive is looming,” says Andrzej Halicki, a senior defense analyst.

Andrius Kubilius adds, “Europe must move away from relying solely on NATO’s collective defense and establish a robust, independent security framework.”

Implications for European Defense Policy

These warnings signal a need for reforms that could include:

1. Enhanced intelligence sharing among EU states.
2. Accelerated procurement of advanced defense systems.
3. Strategic investment in military readiness and rapid response capabilities.

EU Steps Toward a New Defence Horizon

Preparation as a Path to Peace

The ancient Latin adage reminds us that true tranquility demands readiness for conflict. In today’s increasingly unpredictable global landscape, the European Union must reinforce its defensive capabilities and slice up the assurance that it can safeguard its own interests.

Political Energy and Determined Action

Decades of hesitation have stalled progress among member nations. However, the imminent appointment of the first European Commissioner for Defence and Space signals a potential shift from inertia to proactive measure.

Strategic Roadmap from the EPP Group

• Comprehensive debates within the European People’s Party (EPP) culminated in a new strategic paper.
• The document, titled “A Europe that Protects: Building a True European Defence Union”, lays out concrete steps for the continent to become self‑reliant in security matters.
• It stresses both immediate actions and long‑term commitments to solidify defensive collaboration.

Urgency and Decisiveness

To safeguard its future, Europe must act swiftly and with resolve. The combined approach of legislative leadership and tactical planning offers a viable pathway toward a resilient defence framework, aligning Europe’s security goals with its core principle of lasting peace.

It’s a matter of credibility

Reassessing European Defence: A Call for Action

Defence Budget Growth in a Global Context

Over the past ten years, Moscow has increased its defence budget by almost 300%, while Beijing has seen a rise of nearly 600%. In stark contrast, EU member states have only managed a 20% uptick. This disparity highlights a widening security gap.

Current Shortfalls and Credibility Issues

Even though the NATO alliance broadly aims to allocate 2% of GDP to defence, many European members fall short of this benchmark. Falling behind not only weakens collective security but also undermines the EU’s credibility on the world stage.

Expert Forecasts: The Real Threat

Security analysts predict that Russia could launch a full-scale offensive against the EU and NATO within the next five years. This looming danger forces Europe to take decisive responsibility for defending its own interests.

Strategic Imperatives: Five Concrete Steps

• Boost domestic defence spending to meet or exceed the 2% GDP target.
• Enhance national production capabilities for military hardware.
• Strengthen rapid deployable forces through joint training exercises.
• Improve logistics and supply chain resilience, especially for ammunition and spare parts.
• Foster closer cooperation among EU members to unify defence policy and procurement.

Fragmented Acquisition and Supply Vulnerabilities

Presently, EU states procure roughly 78% of their military equipment from outside the bloc. The war in Ukraine underscores how fragmented production capabilities and inadequate maintenance infrastructure can create long, fragile supply lines for ammunition and spare parts.

Conclusion

For Europe to remain secure, it must realign its defence strategy, bridge current gaps in spending and production, and commit to a collective, forward‑looking defence posture. Only through these decisive actions can the region safeguard its sovereignty and uphold its global standing.

Revitalising Europe’s Defence Industry: A Call for a Unified Market

Recent events have highlighted a stark inefficiency in the European defence sector. Too many members of the European Union still rely on non‑EU suppliers for military equipment, with 78 per cent of their arsenal sourced outside the bloc. This dependency not only strains budgets but also hampers the ability to respond effectively in times of crisis.

Key Issues Hindering Progress

• Fragmented Capabilities: Each member state maintains distinct procurement processes, leading to duplicate efforts and wasted resources.
• Limited Production & Repair Capacity: The current structure leaves many European suppliers ill‑prepared to sustain high‑volume production or timely maintenance, as demonstrated during the Ukraine conflict.
• Long and Vulnerable Supply Chains: The reliance on external suppliers creates extended logistics lines for ammunition, spare parts, and technical support, increasing risk during wartime.

The Vision: A Cohesive Single Market for Defence

A truly integrated defence market would require:

• Substantial investment in industrial capacity: Funding growth and innovation across the continent.
• Active participation of SMEs: Leveraging small and medium enterprises to foster competition and agility.
• Elimination of cross‑border barriers: Removing regulatory obstacles that impede trade and collaboration.
• Promotion of pan‑European supply chains: Coordinating production lines to maximise efficiency.

Next Steps for Success

• Standardisation & mutual recognition: Implementing uniform certification procedures to streamline approvals.
• Joint procurement initiatives: Encouraging collective buying among member states to consolidate demand.
• Inclusion of Ukraine: Integrating the Ukrainian defence market as a partner and providing support for capacity building.

Implementing these measures will transform the European defence landscape, ensuring that taxpayer funds are used more effectively and that the bloc can respond more swiftly and securely to future challenges.

Can we get a ‘military Schengen’?

Strategic Imperatives for Strengthening Europe’s Defence

1. Amplifying Investment in Futuristic Defence Technologies

To safeguard the continent’s sovereignty, we must surge funding into a spectrum of cutting‑edge technologies that promise transformative capabilities:

• Cyber Defence – fortifying networks against escalating digital threats.
• Outer Space Surveillance – tracking space‑borne adversaries and securing satellite infrastructure.
• Novel Materials & Advanced Manufacturing – developing lighter, stronger war‑materials.
• Artificial Intelligence – enhancing decision‑making speed and precision.
• Quantum & Cloud Computing – unlocking unprecedented computational powers.
• Internet of Things (IoT) – creating interconnected sensor ecosystems.
• Robotics & Biotechnology – augmenting front‑line support and resilience.
• Nanotechnology – enabling high‑performance protective coatings and stealth solutions.

2. Joint European Initiatives with Transatlantic Partners

In concert with Atlantic allies, we propose ambitious shared programmes that elevate Europe’s defensive posture:

• Interoperable Missile Defence Shield – a unified continental barrier against aerial incursions.
• European Nuclear Shield – safeguarding all member states against nuclear contingencies.
• Defence Advanced Research Programme Agency – a DARPA‑style entity driving breakthrough research across the bloc.

3. Building a Cohesive Defence Union

The EPP Group envisions an integrated Defence Union, harmonizing:

• Land, sea, air, space and cyber operations.
• A Rapid Deployment Capacity (RDC) – a permanent, ready‑to‑operate force aligned with NATO standards.

To underpin this unity, a concrete “military Schengen” roadmap will facilitate unimpeded mobility within EU borders, ensuring rapid troop redeployment and logistical support.

4. The Imperative of Political Will

While the global arms race persists, the future of European security hinges not merely on policy frameworks but on decisive political action. Nations must commit to these strategic priorities, translating resolve into tangible investments and collaborations.

EU Urges Unified Defence Framework & Boosted Funding

Forming a Joint Headquarters

To harness the EU’s integrated crisis‑management approach, lawmakers insist on establishing a fully staffed and equipped Joint Headquarters. This body would blend civil and military resources to streamline everything from strategic planning to on‑ground operations.

Prioritising Investment & Industrial Growth

• Funding: Advocate for a dedicated budget slice within the EU’s multi‑annual financial plan.
• Smart Regulation: Reduce bureaucratic hurdles that hamper rapid deployment.
• Industrial Capacity: Strengthen domestic defence production chains.
• Infrastructure: Upgrade logistics and intelligence capabilities.

Future White Paper on Defence

The forthcoming white paper must: 

• Translate the Draghi report’s recommendations into actionable measures.
• Secure an extra €500 billion for defence over the next decade.
• Revisit the European Investment Bank’s mandate to spur private sector investment.
• Introduce decisive VAT exemptions for defence projects.

Call for New Financing Models

By redefining financing strategies—particularly through EIB loans that catalyse private investment—the EU can meet its ambitious defence objectives.

The world is watching

Europe’s Standpoint on Defense and Security

Europe must carve out a decisive voice on the global stage regarding defense concerns. For the European People’s Party (EPP), strengthening ties with the United States through NATO remains the bedrock of collective security, yet this partnership does not absolve Europeans of the need to safeguard their own interests with robust, complementary capabilities.

Defining True Partnership

A genuine alliance embodies shared responsibilities, collaborative initiatives, and equitable burden‑sharing. Europe cannot remain passive while militarization accelerates worldwide.

Constructing Interoperable Defense Systems

• Develop advanced, interoperable platforms that align with European standards.
• Encourage joint procurement to ensure cost‑effectiveness and strategic cohesion.
• Invest in research and development for cutting‑edge technologies.

Political Will and Policy Alignment

The future of European security hinges on both forward‑looking policies and the political determination to act decisively. It is time for Europe to shoulder its defense responsibilities, under the watchful eyes of the world.

Key Proponents

Andrzej Halicki, Vice Chair of the EPP Group for Foreign Affairs, and Andrius Kubilius, European Commissioner‑designate for Defense and Space, emphasize the urgency of this mission.