Europe’s Deal Surge Stays Strong, Despite the Odds

Dealmakers Don’t Stop Biking Despite the Storm

The World’s in a Bit of a Tumble

When the world’s political climate feels like a roller‑coaster and trade guys keep messing with the rules, buying and selling businesses can’t seem to keep up. But that’s not stopping playboys in suits from hopping onto the next deal.

The Iron‑Willed Executives

• Stubborn as ever: Even when futures are unpredictable, big‑wig CEOs keep their eyes on the prize.
• Risk‑takers for a living: With markets sputtering, they’re now more excited than ever to stack up new ventures.
• Hustle at its core: The chaos only serves as fuel, convincing them that the next acquisition is waiting just around the corner.

Deal‑Making in the Day‑Light, Not a Night‑Sky

When the last quarter of 2024 opened, many execs were about to write their own “After the storm” lines. Heads up—just a few months later, U.S. trade law decided to dust a drizzle on the parade.

First‑Half 2025: Two‑Trillion Dollar Marathon

• Global Deal Count: 24,793 transactions—a figure that sounds more like a high‑school math problem than a business headline.
• Deal Value: $2.0 trillion, beating last year by 13.6% in value.
• Growth Rate: 16.2% jump in the number of deals. Even the CFOs with their ledger‑headphones admit it feels like a leap.

Why Numbers Still Make You Smile

“Despite persistent macro‑headwinds—recession clink, geopolitics like a Rocky‑Balboa, and trade friction playing a bumper‑car—the M&A market showed a grin,” explained pitch‑black‑quick analyst Garrett Hinds. His words? Harder than a financial puzzle at a family potluck.

Europe: The Catch‑22 of Counting & Exciting

Europe’s deal pipeline keeps racing, but the secret sauce is that if firms can sustain the first‑half 2025 numbers, the continent will hit a record year in over a decade. Picture it as a staggedant dance—naming every deal, and every dance step, above bar.

And What Next? A Forecast Worth a Laugh

Executive teams have learned: when the economy flips like a satellite, they’re still ready to pitch right. Tossing a handful of enthusiasm in the mix, the M&A world may stay more resilient than the last click‑bait headline. That’s the optimistic outlook, with a side of light humor—because a real chart looks better than an invisible tailwalker.

The valuation gap

A Post‑Boom Recovery: Why Deal‑Making is Still a Tug‑of‑War

Last year was a breather for M&A after the 2023 turbulence of climbing rates and shaky markets. Yet, deals still hit a wall: buyers and sellers couldn’t meet in the middle over a firm’s worth.

What the Numbers Say

• Buyers vs. Sellers: Sellers expect a bump in value after buying during the 2020 M&A frenzy, hoping to snap back the pie in 2025 when rates have risen.
• Reality Check: Buyers are often skeptical of that upside, leading to stalled sales or complex compromises.

Lorenzo Corte, co‑head of Skadden’s transactional practice, told Euronews that these mismatched expectations can either kill the deal or force the parties to devise intricate bridge mechanisms.

Earn‑Outs: The Golden Ticket?

One popular way to bridge the gap is an earn‑out. Think of it as a “pay‑later” clause where the buyer pays part of the price down the road, tied to the business’s future performance.

While it can smooth out the valuation mismatch, the structure often becomes a labyrinth of conditions that brings its own headaches.

Global Economy: Slowly Rumbling Again

Inflation and interest rates have eased, so the rocky valuation terrain isn’t as treacherous as before. Yet, Nigel Wellings of Clifford Chance points out that the last few years left many firms in a state of “modeling chaos.” He notes that buyers still face challenges predicting debt costs over 3‑5 years, making valuations tricky.

He adds that, despite lingering uncertainties, firms now have a clearer idea of rate direction—so deal‑making isn’t a dead end, just a bit more complex.

Bottom Line

While the market is slowly breathing, the battle over valuation remains. Whether a deal falls through or lands with a creative hybrid payment plan, the key is aligning expectations and navigating the maze of economic variables.

A shifting business landscape

Corporate Rethink: The 2025 M&A Pulse

In the whirlwind of today’s business landscape, CEOs are finding themselves running a bit of a reality check. With the green transition and AI lighting up the skies, it looks like the only constant left might be change itself.

Why Companies Are Splitting and Merging

• Old models, new problems: Leaders are saying their current game plan may not survive the next decade. That’s a prime reason to sell off parts of the biz that won’t make the cut.
• Buying into the future: Rather than juggle a scattered portfolio, some firms are snapping up others to take a fresh angle on their strategies.
• Geopolitical paddling: Shifting economic seas mean companies are shedding exposure to tough markets and riding the waves in sturdier regions.

Sector‑Specific Buzz

Pitchbook analysts predict that when margins are thin, the consolidation heat will surge.

• Automotive & Chemical: Rising costs—thanks to US tariffs—force firms to scale or squeeze out inefficiencies. The result? A hotter M&A market for these sectors.
• Aerospace & Defence: Burst of spend here creates juicy targets for growth‑driven deals.

IT’s Unexpected Upswing

Between April and June, the IT arena exploded—becoming the sole European sector whose M&A value ticked up quarter‑on‑quarter, climbing by a staggering 36.6%. It’s a reminder: sometimes, the tech world is where the hidden gems glow.

Bottom Line

2025’s business circles are reshaping faster than a coffee‑shop latte. Companies that grasped the need to pivot—whether by shedding old lines or plugging into new ones—are not only staying relevant but steering the future.

Is Europe still scared of scale?

When Corporate Dreamers Meet Regulatory Reality

At the close of 2023, the American business buzz was fueled by whispers that President Trump might roll back some deal‑making red tape—an idea that tickled investors because fewer hurdles mean more deals.

Across the Atlantic: Europe’s “Draghi Moment”

Lorenzo Corte from Skadden tells the story in a way that feels like a manifesto:

• The Draghi Report – a buzzworthy 2019 white paper drafted by ex‑ECB chief Mario Draghi.
• Its tagline? “Time to build European giants that can stand toe‑to‑toe with the world.”
• Europeans felt a wave of excitement, expecting massive takeovers and mergers to lift boardrooms across Brussels.
• Corte admits the period is too brief to declare a trend, but he’s optimistic that the consolidation train will keep chugging.

EU Deal‑Approval – The Slow‑Mo with a Side of Jealousy

Now, if you thought the EU was all frictionless, think again. The Commission has been a stickler for competition, citing examples like:

• Blockade of Siemens Mobility’s mega‑merger with Alstom.
• Preventing Ryanair from swallowing Aer Lingus.
• Deciding whether Mars will join forces with Kellanova—a deal under a waiting‑list.

And the roadblocks don’t end there. Spain’s top brass have shown a souring toward BBVA’s bid for rival Sabadell, proving that national politics can choke a deal as much as the EU’s own gatekeepers.

Clifford Chance’s Take: Size Isn’t the Bite

Nigel Wellings of Clifford Chance argues the EU needs to stop pawning “scale” as a sin. He says:

• In finance, sheer size matters for fighting the global market.
• Being a “European champion” is a badge of honor, not a bruise.
• He warns against a blanket “big equals bad” mindset in a truly globalized economy.

Defence: The New Front of Corporate Power

With geopolitical jitters tick‑ticking and a call from U.S. Commander‑in‑chief Donald Trump, European states are nudging their budgets toward the trenches. Germany, for example, lifted a debt‑brake rule, allowing for a freer flow of money into weaponry and critical infrastructure.

So, whether it’s mergers or military upgrades, the continent’s leaders are looking to make Europe stand tall—while also getting the bureaucrats to stop holding them hostage.

Moving through the headwinds

How the M&A Landscape Looks This Year

Picture the corporate merger scene like a hot coffee shop in a bustling city. It’s not boiling, but it’s certainly not a quiet speake‑asy either. Analysts say the market is perched somewhere between a brisk summer wind and a sluggish winter chill, thanks to a mix of new tariffs, lingering economic jitters, rising interest rates that are easing, and an appetite for big‑size deals.

What’s Steering the Ship?

• President Trump’s Tariffs – Everyone’s eyes are on how those duties might shift trade flows.
• The Economic Ripple – Inflation beats, consumer confidence, and job numbers all add layers to the story.
• Ukraine Update – Geopolitical drama can send shockwaves through global supply chains.
• Regulatory Moves – New rules from regulators can open or close doors for deals.
• Rate Deciders – The ECB and the Fed will be here to set the tempo.

Private Equity – A Slow‑Burning Food for Thought

Private equity exits have been strolling along a leisurely pace. When PE players decide to sell a company and hand back cash to shareholders, it’s not happening with the speed of a flash sale. But don’t let that scare you. If these firms can pick up any backlog and free up a few investment capital, the next year might just explode with activity.

Expert Take

“You’re not in a rush‑hour scenario where a hot listing automatically attracts a whole crowd of buyers,” notes Wellings. “But if you give your due diligence the right amount of blood, the right amount of energy, your valuation on point, you start to see offers land on the table.”