Clumsy Japanese PM Ishiba’s Future Hangs on the Edge of a Delicate Balance

Shigeru Ishiba’s Prime Ministerial Dream Faces a Thursday Smokescreen

Polls Predict a Loss of Majority in Upper‑House Elections

Opinion surveys suggest that Shigeru Ishiba’s coalition could lose its upper‑house majority on Sunday. Should the LDP lose its seat majority, Ishiba may feel compelled to step down.

The LDP’s Long‑Running Dominance Meets Uncertain Succession

The Liberal Democratic Party has governed Japan almost continuously since 1955. Yet, whether Ishiba’s name remains the most attractive option for prime minister is another story.

Ishiba’s Profile and Ambitions

• Age 68, father of two daughters, son of a regional governor, and a member of Japan’s small Christian minority.
• Self‑confessed defense “geek” who clutched the LDP leadership in September on his fifth attempt.
• Strategic pledge to “create a new Japan” by revitalizing rural regions and tackling the ”
  “quiet emergency” of Japan’s shrinking population.

Election Missteps and Policy Instability

After shoring up a lower‑house election in October, the LDP suffered its worst 15‑year result. The coalition lost its majority, leaving the government to negotiate with opposition parties for legislation. This shift left Ishiba’s policy platform between inflation control and growth spurts in a state of flip‑flop, as Moody’s Analytics analyst Stefan Angrick observed.

Popularity Ratings Plummeting Amid Price Rises

Governance ratings hit a low amid voters’ anger over price hikes, especially rice prices that are double the cost of a year ago.

Modernization Gaps in the Cabinet

Only two women were appointed to Ishiba’s cabinet, down from five under former premier Fumio Kishida. This shortfall has left Ishiba’s cabinet with limited representation of women.

Public Ridicule from Social Media Memes

Shigeru Ishiba has been a subject of memes on social media, with criticism ranging from his seemingly unpolished tuxedo to his table manners. Reports surfaced of him napping in parliament and failing to greet world leaders at a South American gathering. A video of Ishiba eating an onigiri rice ball whole, without closing his mouth, surfaced on X, leading to comments: “He eats like a three‑year‑old, How could he have risen to the top with these manners?”

Trade Challenges with President Trump

President Donald Trump has imposed tariffs on Japanese cars, steel, and aluminium, with further levies of 25 percent on other Japanese imports slated to take effect on August 1 if no trade agreement is reached.

Ishiba earned an early invitation to the White House in February and has sent tariffs envoys to Washington seven times, yet no final deal has materialized. Former premier Shinzo Abe, dubbed a “Trump whisperer”, fared better during Trump’s first term, managing to shield Japan from any tariffs. Abe, who was assassinated in 2022, was a frequent visitor to see the U.S. president, and Trump noted that Abe even nominated him for the Nobel Prize. “There will never be another like him,” Trump said after Abe’s death.

In Summary

Shigeru Ishiba’s ambition to steer Japan into a new era has been strained by electoral setbacks, policy vacillations, and public missteps. Whether he can survive the impending trade negotiations and regain public confidence remains to be seen.