China trade surges in July, beating forecasts #

China’s July Exports Surge, U.S. Tariff Truce Holds

Official figures Thursday showed Chinese goods sent abroad rose 7.2 percent year‑on‑year in July, surpassing the 5.6 percent Bloomberg forecast. The uptick came as the country’s economy, still straining, benefited from overseas shipments while navigating a fragile trade‑war truce with the United States.

Stockholm Talks Keep the Tariff Truce in Place

In Stockholm last month, Beijing and Washington agreed to continue talks on extending the 90‑day tariff truce set to end on August 12. Under the deal, U.S. duties on Chinese goods sit at 30 percent, while China levies 10 percent on U.S. products. The accord, originally reached in Geneva in May, has temporarily lifted triple‑digit tariffs each side imposed after Donald Trump launched the “Liberation Day” levies on April 2.

American Trade Representative Emphasizes Trump’s Authority

U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said Trump would hold the “final say” on any extension of the tariffs truce between Washington and Beijing. The 90‑day truce could snap back to the original duties after August 12.

U.S. Tariffs Expand, Shifting Global Trade

• Higher tariffs imposed on dozens of trading partners, including a 35 percent duty on Canada.
• President Trump signaled potential 100 percent tariffs on semiconductor imports.
• The U.S. seeks to reshape global trade to benefit the domestic economy.

China’s Exports to the U.S. Fall, Imports Rise

China’s exports to the United States, its largest trading partner, fell 6.1 percent from the previous month, despite the overall rise in overseas shipments. Imports, a key gauge of struggling domestic demand, jumped 4.1 percent year‑on‑year in July, compared with a Bloomberg forecast of a one‑percent fall.

Economic Expert Insight

Zhiwei Zhang, president and chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management, said the data showed exports supported the economy strongly so far this year. He added:

“Export growth may slow in coming months, as the front loading of exports due to U.S. tariffs fades away. The big question is how much China’s exports will slow and how it would spill over to the rest of the economy.”

China’s Official Growth Target and Economic Challenges

Beijing has set an official goal of around five percent growth this year, but it has struggled to maintain a robust recovery from the pandemic. The country faces a debt crisis in its massive property sector, chronically low consumption, and elevated youth unemployment. Factory output shrank more than expected in July, data showed last week.