Afghanistan\’s water war: Drought, dams, diplomacy spill the region

Afghanistan Seeks Water Control Amid Regional Tensions

Since the Taliban seized power, Afghanistan has intensified efforts to dominate five major river basins that cross its borders and flow into neighboring countries. The new regime sees water sovereignty as a key ingredient of national security and food security, yet its projects spark disputes with Central Asian neighbors, Iran, and Pakistan, and strain the Taliban’s already isolated diplomatic standing.

Central Asian Disputes Over the Amu Darya

• Afghanistan proposes the Qosh Tepa mega canal, intended to divert up to 21 % of the Amu Darya’s flow to irrigate 560,000 hectares north of the capital. The diversion would magnify the erosion of the Aral Sea, a concern shared by Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan.
• Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan are likely to absorb the biggest impact, while Kazakhstan has expressed alarm. The canal’s operation could produce unforeseen consequences for the river states, experts warn.
• Taliban officials deny that the project will significantly reduce water levels. They claim the canal will improve food security in a country already hampered by a humanitarian crisis.

Iran’s Helmand River Dilemma

Afghanistan and Iran share a formal water treaty signed in 1973 over the Helmand River. The accord has remained unimplemented, as Iran argues that upstream Afghan dams restrict the Helmand’s flow into a border lake. The Taliban cite climate shocks and poor water management as reasons why Afghanistan cannot release sufficient water to Iran.

While Afghanistan and Iran have no water-sharing agreement over the Harirud River, the Taliban’s recent inauguration of the Pashdan dam on that river could pave the way for improved cooperation once security concerns in Afghanistan diminish.

Pakistan’s Unresolved Shared Basin

Afghanistan’s Kabul river basin fuels the capital and the country’s largest city. The basin belongs to the greater Indus basin, which also provides water for Pakistan. No formal cooperation mechanics exist between the two countries.

Taliban authorities have revitalised old projects and started new ones to address Kabul’s severe water crisis. However, limited funds and technical gaps mean that Afghanistan’s large water infrastructure projects may take many years to come to fruition, a delay that may be good for diplomacy but bad for ordinary Afghans.

Climate Change Intensifies Shared Water Scarcity

Rising temperatures and shifting precipitation patterns threaten glaciers and snowpack that feed Afghanistan’s rivers. Shared climate shocks could exacerbate water scarcity across all the basin countries, widening the prospects for future disputes.

In this complex environment, Afghanistan is emerging as a key player in negotiations over river usage—though its new water projects often rest on precarious foundations of diplomatic isolation and limited infrastructure.