Ukraine War: Western Exhaustion Over Kyiv Support, US Aid at Risk, France Secures Arms Deals

All the latest developments from the war in Ukraine

Recent Military Movements

• January 2025: Increased artillery positions along the Donetsk front line.
• February 2025: Russian forces captured several strategic villages in Kharkiv Oblast.
• March 2025: Ukrainian counteroffensive pushed back shelling zones near Mariupol.

Diplomatic Efforts

• UN Security Council: Debated a resolution for a ceasefire, but no consensus reached.
• EU sanctions: Expanded penalties targeting key Russian oil exporters.
• US nuclear talks: Secret meetings aimed at de-escalating tensions.

Humanitarian Impact

• Displaced Persons: Over 5 million civilians seeking refuge across Ukraine.
• Infrastructure Damage: 70% of hospitals in eastern regions are non-operational.
• International Aid: €1.2 billion pledged in the latest emergency package.

Economic Consequences

• Commodity Prices: Wheat and grain exports dropped by 45% due to blockades.
• Currency Fluctuations: The Ukrainian hryvnia weakened by 15% against the dollar.
• Energy Markets: Global oil prices spiked following new sanctions.

Looking Ahead

The situation remains fluid, with both sides preparing for potential escalations and negotiations. International observers continue to monitor battlefield developments and diplomatic engagements closely.

West will tire of supporting Ukraine – Kremlin

Kremlin Warns of Growing Western Fatigue on Ukraine Support

Key Points from Moscow’s Statement

• Weariness in the West is predicted to rise, especially in the United States, as concerns over continued aid to Ukraine grow.
• Despite this trend, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov expects the U.S. to remain directly involved in the conflict.
• He cautions that war fatigue will deepen political divisions and spark internal contradictions.

Context: EU Foreign Ministers in Kyiv

The European Union’s foreign ministers convened a historic meeting in Kyiv, aiming to demonstrate solidarity and support for Ukraine’s bid to join the bloc. The gathering was intended to send a clear message to Moscow that the EU will not be swayed by possible Western exhaustion.

Implications for U.S. Aid

The future of American assistance is uncertain, as it was omitted from a recent short‑term budget agreement designed to avert a federal shutdown. This omission signals potential shifts in policy, even as the U.S. remains engaged in the war effort.

Statements from EU Officials

French Minister Catherine Colonna emphasized that the Kyiv conference should reinforce that Moscow cannot rely on any perceived fatigue among EU members.

Kyiv strikes deals with French arms manufacturers

France Strengthens Ukrainian Defence Aid After Kyiv Forum

During a briefing held in Kyiv last week, a number of French defence contractors announced new agreements to support Ukraine, AFP reported on Monday.

Expanded Caesar Cannon Supply

• Nexter, part of the French‑German group KNDS, will deliver an additional six Caesar self‑propelled howitzers to Ukrainian forces.
• Each Caesar is mounted on a truck and can launch 155‑mm shells up to 40 kilometres.

Armed Vehicle Component Production

• Arquus secured a deal to manufacture and maintain specific armored vehicle parts. France already supplied over 100 units to Ukraine.

Mine‑Clearing and Amphibious Support

• CEFA will provide eight SDZ heavy mine‑clearing robots and eight amphibious transport vehicles for water crossings.

Drone Procurement and Development

• Delair previously supplied 150 surveillance drones this summer and has now received an order for an additional 150 units, per its president Bastien Mancini.
• Both Thales and Turgis & Gaillard have entered agreements with Ukrainian partners to co‑develop new drone platforms.

Industrial Support for Production

• Vistory will establish a 3D‑printing hub in Ukraine, enabling local manufacture of spare parts.

Details on how these contracts will be financed remain unspecified. AFP notes that the funding may involve French state subsidies.

Future of US aid to Ukraine at stake

Latest US Budget Deal Skips Further Kyiv Funding

While President Joe Biden has assured Ukraine that American support for its defense against Russia remains steadfast, a last‑minute compromise passed by Congress has omitted new military aid for Kyiv.

Political Tensions over Kyiv Support

• Hardline Republicans: They argue against a “blank check” for Ukraine, insisting on stricter controls over military expenditures.
• Democrats: They emphasize Washington’s responsibility to help Ukraine repel the invasion launched by Russian President Vladimir Putin, warning that unchecked authoritarian expansion could embolden future aggressors.

Concerns About the Consequence on the Ground

Analyst Brett Bruen notes that the potential decline in U.S. aid could alarm Kyiv’s leaders and spark celebratory reactions in Moscow over a perceived weakening of support.

“This shift should be a cause for concern for Kyiv’s officials,” Bruen states, adding, “I believe Moscow is taking a positive view of the signals that our assistance may be diminishing.”

U.S. Support for Ukraine Faces Political Uncertainty

While the administration pushes forward with a new aid package, the Biden team must navigate a crowded political landscape that includes renewed concerns about Donald Trump’s upcoming campaign and growing public fatigue over the war effort.

Key Points

• Since Russia initiated its full‑scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the U.S. has delivered approximately $46 billion (≈ €43 billion) in military assistance.
• President J B Biden is proposing an additional $24 billion (≈ €23 billion) to sustain Ukraine’s defense capabilities.
• Both major parties are preparing separate bills for this aid; the Democrats expect a distinct measure in the near term.
• Trump, who has publicly lauded Russian leader Vladimir Putin, has fuelled speculation that he might pursue re‑election, adding complexity to congressional deliberations.

Public Opinion Signals Growing War Fatigue

A recent poll by ABC/Washington Post (released September 24) reported that 41 % of respondents feel the U.S. is over‑extending its support for Ukraine—up from 33 % in February and from 14 % in April 2022.

With inflation pressures mounting, voters appear increasingly skeptical of continued large‑scale military intervention abroad.

Congressional Outlook

In Congress, lawmakers are split over how much aid should continue. The opposing parties are drafting their own legislation, ensuring that the request for additional funds will be accompanied by debates that could affect the final allocation.

Meanwhile, the Democratic side indicates a separate aid bill is likely to be introduced imminently, a move that could sidestep opposition roadblocks while still honouring the commitment to Ukraine.

As the U.S. administration pushes to keep Ukraine industrially and militarily capable, the interplay between executive ambition, congressional dynamics, and the electorate’s dwindling patience is shaping the future trajectory of this foreign policy endeavor.

Ukraine will not give in, says Zelenskyy

Ukraine’s President Reaffirms Resolve Amid Budget Deal Controversy

Speech Highlights Unyielding Commitment

• Zelensky’s address on Sunday stated that Ukraine will not be weakened by the U.S. Congress’s recent budget pact that omitted military aid.
• The president referenced the U.S. decision without naming it directly, insisting it does not affect his nation’s determination.
• He confirmed that the country’s bravery and strength remain steadfast, and that Ukraine will only lay down arms on the day of victory.
• Echoing the sentiment: “We will fight for as long as it takes,” the leader reaffirmed Ukraine’s lasting resolve.

No plans to send British troops to Ukraine – UK PM

UK Rules Out Immediate Deployment of Troops to Ukraine

Prime Minister’s Position

Prime Minister Rishi Sunak clarified that Britain has no current policy to deploy soldiers to the Ukrainian conflict. In a brief statement to reporters, Sunak emphasized that the idea of training Ukrainian forces on British soil or in Ukraine is a long‑term possibility, not an immediate action.

Defence Secretary’s Proposal

Demonstrating a difference of tone, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, newly appointed this month, hinted that military instructors might assist the Ukrainian army. “It might well be possible one day in the future for us to do some of that training in Ukraine,” Shapps said, adding that such efforts would be scheduled for the long term.

Leaked Documents and Allegations

In April, leaked classified files emerged suggesting that Britain and other NATO special forces had already been deployed inside Ukraine. Despite this evidence, the UK government has not formally confirmed any on‑ground presence.

Russian Reaction

Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev warned that any British soldier operating in Ukraine would become a legitimate target for Russian forces, reflecting the heightened tension surrounding potential foreign military involvement.

Key Takeaways

• Sunak’s “no immediate plans” stance remains unchanged.
• Shapps’ comments signal a future consideration of training rather than troop deployment.
• Leaked documents hint at covert special forces activity overseas.
• Russia’s position underscores the risk of direct military confrontation.