Robotaxi Revolution: What’s Next Ahead of Tesla’s Investor Update

Tesla Sets Stage for Record Q3 Deliveries Amid China Boom

Growth Drivers

Key Bullish Indicators

• China Market Surge: A remarkable uptick in vehicle orders in China is expected to lift overall delivery numbers.
• Robotaxi Focus: The forthcoming Robotaxi showcase will become a central theme for investors, potentially redefining Tesla’s strategic trajectory.

Implications for Investors

Short‑Term Outlook

• Anticipated record deliveries should support upward momentum in share price.
• Robotaxi developments may introduce new revenue streams and alter competitive positioning.

Looking Ahead

Strategic Considerations

• Execution of global expansion plans will hinge on sustained demand, especially in China.
• Successful integration of autonomous technology could cement Tesla’s leadership in the emerging mobility landscape.

Tesla Anticipated Delivery Surge in Q3

With the automaker slated to unveil its quarterly delivery figures next week, market watchers predict a record‑breaking haul for the third quarter. The surge is expected to stem largely from buoyant demand across China.

Projected Numbers

• FactSet estimate: 461,000 vehicles, a 6% year‑over‑year increase.
• Barclays forecast: 470,000 units, an 8% rise year‑on‑year and a 10% jump from Q2.

Key Drivers

Barclays highlights that strong sales in China should counterbalance any softer momentum in the U.S. and European markets.

Potential record quarterly sales in China

Tesla Drives New Heights in 2024 China Sales, Yet Falls Short of 2022 Benchmark

From the data released by the China Passenger Car Association (CPCA), Tesla’s August sales total 86,697 vehicles. 23,241 of these cars were shipped abroad, leaving 63,456 units sold domestically.

The month‑to‑month growth is notable, with a 37.27 % rise over July and a 2 % increase relative to the same period last year. Although this marks Tesla’s peak monthly volume in 2024, it still doesn’t reach the nearly 80,000 cars sold in May and September 2022.

Despite the August spike, the organization’s total deliveries from January through August amount to 388,000 vehicles—a 0.57 % dip compared with the previous year, according to CNevpost reports.

Market Share Snapshot

• BYD maintains the lead with a 37 % slice of the new‑energy vehicle (NEV) market.
• Geely follows in second place, holding 7.2 %.
• Tesla climbs to third with a 6.2 % share, up from 5.27 % a month earlier.

Outlook for September

Early data from CPCA suggests Tesla will keep its momentum into September: 31,800 vehicles were registered in the first fortnight of the month, hinting at a potential monthly total that could surpass 63,000 units.

European Sales Context

Comparatively, Tesla’s European output remains modest, having delivered approximately 148,000 vehicles during the first seven months of 2024—a figure that equates to roughly two months of China sales.

Robotaxi event in focus

Tesla’s Upcoming Releases: Delivery Figures, Earnings and Robotaxi Expo

OpenAI’s Tesla typically announces its quarterly delivery and production numbers roughly two weeks before the company releases its earnings report, which is scheduled for 16 October.

While analysts generally look forward to the delivery outlook, the broader focus often shifts to overall company performance. This quarter, however, the spotlight will turn to the highly anticipated Robotaxi event.

Key Developments for the Robotaxi Initiative

• Original Schedule: The unveiling was initially set for 8 August but has been rescheduled for 10 October.
• Strategic Aim: The project is a cornerstone of Tesla’s drive to create fully autonomous vehicles powered by the Full Self‑Driving (FSD) system, positioning the company firmly in the AI competition.
• Manufacturing Site: CEO Elon Musk confirmed that the Robotaxi and the forthcoming Optimus humanoid robots will be built in Tesla’s Austin, Texas plant.

Optimus Updates

In April, Musk hinted that the Optimus could begin assisting with tasks within the factory by the end of 2024. The humanoid robot is expected to complement Tesla’s broader AI initiatives.

FSD Rollout Plans

Tesla plans to bring its Full Self‑Driving system to both China and Europe by the first quarter of 2025. This rollout will depend on securing regulatory approvals. During the second‑quarter earnings call, Musk mentioned that the company might have received necessary permission by the end of this year.

Tesla shares’ trajectory

Tuesday’s Market Move: Tesla Shares Surge 1.08%

On Wednesday afternoon, Tesla Inc. saw its stock climb 1.08% to $257 (about €230), extending a three‑day win streak.

Position Within the “Magnificent Seven”

• Current YTD rise: +3.44%, the lowest among the seven high‑profile tech names.
• Principal factor: a notable slowdown in growth expectations.
• Post‑earnings rebound: sales‑focused earnings in Q1 and a promise to boost production of more affordable electric vehicles have yielded an 84% uptick in the share price.

Implications for the Chinese Market

Growth in the Chinese market is anticipated to strengthen, and recent governmental easing measures have buoyed domestic equities, particularly within the EV sector.

Analyst Sentiment

• Bank of America: “BUY” recommendation with a target price of $255 (≈ €228).
• UBS: maintains a “SELL” stance, projecting a target of $197 (≈ €176).

Investors are advised to monitor Tesla’s trajectory as the company navigates shifts in both global and domestic demand.