Oscars 2025: Predictions for the Winners, Underdogs, and Must-Win Stars

Who Will Claim the Most Prestigious Oscars on Sunday and Which Film is Poised to Snag Best Picture in This Unexpected Night?

Anticipated Heavily‑Watched Categories

While every Oscar ceremony brings fireworks, a few key awards tend to dominate the headlines:

• Best Actor – The top dramas of 2024 have produced several frontrunners, with standout performances that could swing the vote.
• Best Actress – A handful of leading ladies have amassed critical acclaim, and the competition is close.
• Best Supporting Actor / Actress – These categories often surprise, offering breakout moments for rising talent.
• Best Director – With a slate of visionary filmmakers, the director’s award promises intense debate.

The Best Picture Showdown

In recent years the Best Picture contest has become less predictable, with crowd favorites battling against artistic underdogs. The current favorites include:

• “Echoes of Tomorrow” – A sweeping sci‑fi drama that blends visual spectacle with a poignant narrative. Critics have lauded its bold storytelling.
• “Silent Horizons” – A quiet, intimate observational film that has resonated with the festival circuit, especially for its directorial subtlety.
• “Political Dawn” – A jaw‑dropping political thriller that has stirred debate and showcased stellar ensemble performances.

Each of these contenders carries strengths that could tip the Balance of the Academy’s voting process.

Predicted Night‑Long Highlights

• Best Picture – Likely to go to either “Echoes of Tomorrow” or “Silent Horizons,” depending on the Academy’s appetite for innovation versus craftsmanship.
• Best Director – The award will probably go to the visionary behind one of the two film frontrunners mentioned above.
• Best Actor/Actress – The nominations are expected to revolve around dominant lead performances in “Political Dawn” and “Silent Horizons.”
• Supporting Categories – We expect surprise winners, as voter fatigue often leans toward fresh faces.

Bottom Line

Sunday’s ceremony is primed to deliver a set of unforgettable moments, with the Best Picture trophy likely contested by “Echoes of Tomorrow” or “Silent Horizons.” The Oscars’ unpredictable nature and the weighted drama of the nominations promise to make the night memorable for both fans and industry insiders alike.

Unpredictable Paths to the 97th Oscars

Forecasting this year’s Academy Awards feels like navigating a labyrinth.
In 2025, the contest shows no predetermined winners—differing from the decisive Oppenheimer momentum of 2024.
Social media ripples and political undercurrents have shifted the running order, making the 97th ceremony a roller‑coaster of surprises.

Why the Stakes Are High

• Broad nominations. A record number of distinguished films compete.
• Shifting alliances. Online discussions sway fan expectations.
• Last‑minute twists. Votes can still swing the outcome in the closing span.

Our Forecast Blueprint

We categorize the potential results into three layers:

1. Will Wins: The most likely victors according to current data.
2. Could Wins: Unexpected contenders that could upset the status quo.
3. Should Wins: The choices we hope bring recognition to unparalleled artistry.

Next Steps

Stay tuned—as we approach the ceremony’s climax, the final decisions will ripple across the film community, offering a fresh narrative at every award table. The possibilities remain wide open, keeping the anticipation alive until the very last moment.

BEST PICTURE

Best Picture: The Ultimate Showdown

In a season where the Oscars have gone from predictable to wildly unpredictable, the Best Picture contenders are stirring up a new kind of excitement. No film feels assured, and the field is wide open for a headline‑making upset.

Nominees at a Glance

• Anora
• The Brutalist
• A Complete Unknown
• Conclave
• Dune: Part Two
• Emilia Pérez
• I’m Still Here
• Nickel Boys
• The Substance
• Wicked

Shifting Frontiers

Early in awards season, the race seemed firmly anchored between Emilia Pérez and The Brutalist. The former, a musical about a cartel‑trans‑gender heroine, was a tentative favorite, bolstered by 13 Oscar nominations and its political edge. The latter, a sweeping critique of the American Dream, stood as a strong contender for classical storytelling.

However, a sudden social‑media controversy dampened Emilia Pérez‘s prospects, opening the field to other contenders. Though The Brutalist remains grand in scale, a surprising surge of enthusiasm has settled around Conclave, a papal thriller that has resonated with voters.

Evaluating the Odds

The table is stacked against the crowd‑pleaser Wicked and the recent hit Dune: Part Two—neither shows the weight of early momentum needed for an Oscar win. Nickel Boys, while strong on day‑one, lacks low‑level buzz to tip the scales.

I’m Still Here stands as a possible dark horse for Best International Feature, yet its limited domestic appeal may curtail its Best Picture chances. The Substance—a genre‑bending horror—faces an Academy that historically sidesteps horror in the top category.

Key Contenders

For those leaning toward a safe pick, A Complete Unknown continues to sit in the centre of the pack. A middle‑ground contender, Conclave has the classic appeal of a narrative that aligns with Academy storytelling values. The Brutalist could still be a winner but remains wary from a runaway controversy lens. Meanwhile, Anora is emerging as the most substantial outsider with an established record of striking critics and industry awards.

Final Verdict

While the narrative depth of The Brutalist and the mainstream certainty of Conclave are tempting, the underdog status of Anora positions it as the most likely victor. Its record of critical acclaim—drawing three major industry awards—makes it a strong statue for the big prize. Skeptics might still argue that Conclave could win if anthology tastes prevail.

Who Will Win? Anora
Who Could Win? Conclave
Who Should Win? The Brutalist

BEST DIRECTOR

Who Will Claim the 2025 Best Director Award?

Nominations

• Sean Baker – Anora
• Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
• James Mangold – A Complete Unknown
• Jacques Audiard – Emilia Pérez
• Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

Current Landscape

Both Brad Corbet and Sean Baker emerge as strong contenders for the Best Director accolade, a scenario intensified once “Emilia Pérez” stepped down from favor. While Jacques Audiard could have been France’s leading candidate—especially in the wake of Fargeat’s Golden Baldwin triumph—the focus has shifted dramatically toward the two leading American directors.

Why Corbet Holds an Edge

Corbet’s “The Brutalist” demands considerable effort, and his finesse with visual storytelling is undeniable. He appears to have carried more burden per frame, showcasing an admirable level of technical mastery.

Why Baker Might Be Defeated

Despite Baker’s seasoned reputation as an electrifying filmmaker, the current dynamics suggest his chances may be dimmed. The ensemble of fresh talent appears more compelling, and the votes could sway toward a director who has consistently delivered memorable cinema.

Interesting Milestone

Notes indicate that for the first time in over two decades (since 1997) all five directors are receiving their inaugural nomination for Best Director. This marks a significant moment in the industry.

Additional Resource

Exchange a conversation with Coralie Fargeat in our featured interview for deeper insight into her approach and philosophy.

Betting on the Winner

• Most Likely: Sean Baker – Anora
• Contenders: Brady Corbet – The Brutalist
• Most Deserved: Coralie Fargeat – The Substance

BEST ACTOR

Oscar Drama Unfolds: Brody vs. Chalamet

Nominee Snapshot

• Adrien Brody – The Brutalist
• Timothée Chalamet – A Complete Unknown
• Colman Domingo – Sing Sing
• Ralph Fiennes – Conclave
• Sebastian Stan – The Apprentice

Race to the Rose

It feels as if the Academy’s focus has narrowed to a duopoly: Brody and Chalamet. Blooming winning streaks at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice, and BAFTA have crowned Brody, while Chalamet’s recent SAG triumph sparks fresh momentum.

Film Appeal

“A Complete Unknown” edges toward Academy friendliness compared to the unflinching documentary style of “The Brutalist.” Additionally, the Academy’s penchant for biopics – from Gary Oldman’s Churchill to Rami Malek’s Freddie Mercury – positions Chalamet’s role as a musical icon as highly sellable.

Performance Weight

Chalamet’s dedication is evident: a five‑year commitment to mastering Guitar and embodying a Dylan-esque swagger. His portrayal anchors the film, which otherwise follows a familiar biopic formula.

Brody, on the other hand, delivers a powerful comeback narrative, portraying Holocaust survivor László Tóth. Having already clinched Best Actor for The Pianist, his potential to secure a second Oscar feels justified.

Age Dynamics

Brody historically claimed the premiership at 29 during “The Pianist.” If Chalamet emerges victorious, he will become the youngest winner by a few months, having turned 30 in December.

Missed Recognition

The silent disappointment remains: Daniel Craig’s stellar work in Queer bypassed a nomination, leaving many viewers bewildered.

What the Week Ahead Might Hold

While Chalamet – A Complete Unknown seems poised as the surprise winner, Brody – The Brutalist asserts a strong case for deserved acclaim.

Bottom Line

Whether the Academy walls open for the younger talent or rewards the experienced specialist, the story of 2025 remains unmistakably dramatic. Everyone anticipates an Oscar that might redefine the genre’s trajectory.

BEST ACTRESS

Verdict at the SAG Awards: Demi Moore to Take the Spotlight

Demi Moore has emerged from the set of the 2025 SAG Awards as the clear frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress, a fact that aligns with the outcomes of both the Golden Globes and the Critics Choice Awards this year.

Nominees in Focus

• Cynthia Erivo – Wicked
• Karla Sofía Gascón – Emilia Pérez
• Mikey Madison – Anora
• Demi Moore – The Substance
• Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here

The Battle Unfolds

While the category is a tight three‑way contest between Moore, Mikay Madison, and Fernanda Torres, several factors point to a decisive win for the veteran actress.

Key Elements Leading to Moore’s Victory

• The Substance offers a powerful narrative, depicting Elizabeth Sparkle, a seasoned actress fighting for relevance in the unforgiving world of Hollywood.
• Moore’s portrayal brings a raw, fearless intensity that resonates with an audience hungry for stories of resilience.
• Despite the industry’s often lukewarm attitude toward horror and its offshoots, Moore’s performance transcends genre boundaries, earning acclaim across the board.
• The acclaim spans multiple platforms, as evidenced by her sweep at the Golden Globes, Critics Choice Awards, and the SAGs themselves.

Broader Significance

The successful comeback of a seasoned talent still echoes a century’s worth of experience, marking a dignified return to prominence for Moore. Her achievement underscores the enduring appeal of redemption arcs in cinema.

What the Future Holds

While Karla Sofía Gascón was poised to become the first openly transgender winner in this particular category, the outcome is likely to favor Madonna and Torres. Nonetheless, the star power of Monica and current accolades suggest a win is on the table for Moore.

Expected Award Recipient

• Demi Moore – The Substance
• Possible contender: Fernanda Torres – I’m Still Here
• Strongest contender: Demi Moore – The Substance

Ultimately, the SAG Awards will celebrate a narrative of perseverance, as Demi Moore continues to showcase her unmatched talent on the silver screen.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Golden Globe Spotlight: Who Will Take Home the Award?

Official Nominees

• Yura Borisov – Anora
• Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
• Edward Norton – A Complete Unknown
• Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
• Jeremy Strong – The Apprentice

Balancing Act: The Contenders

Kieran Culkin has dominated the season with his portrayal of Benji – a lovably naive yet deeply flawed character. His layered performance blends humor with raw emotion, earning him a stream of pre‑award accolades.

Guy Pearce also poses a formidable challenge. In The Brutalist, he works alongside Adrien Brody, delivering a nuanced antagonist that is both compelling and powerful. Despite the film’s strength, his chances of capturing the title are uncertain.

Predictions and Odds

Likely Winner: Kieran Culkin – A Real Pain
Contending Candidate: Guy Pearce – The Brutalist
Dream Outcome: Guy Pearce – The Brutalist

Final Thoughts

This year’s Golden Globes seem set for a clear victor, with Kieran Culkin’s now ubiquitous presence pushing him firmly ahead. While Guy Pearce might be acknowledged for his standout work, Culkin’s widespread acclaim leaves him comfortably on top of the leaderboard.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Zoe Saldana Set for the SAG Best Supporting Actress Award

The Screen Actors Guild’s recent nomination list reveals a strong contender in the form of Zoe Saldana, who is poised to secure the Best Supporting Actress accolade. Her role—playing a singing‑and‑dancing lawyer who aids a Mexican cartel boss in her transition and eventual disappearance—has garnered critical acclaim, earning her BAFTA and SAG recognitions already.

Nominees for Best Supporting Actress

• Monica Barbaro – A Complete Unknown
• Ariana Grande – Wicked
• Felicity Jones – The Brutalist
• Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
• Zoe Saldaña – Emilia Pérez

Why Zoe Saldana Stands Out

After the brief yet powerful eight‑minute appearance of Isabella Rossellini in Conclave, many observers feel Zoe’s substantial performance is better positioned to win. Her portrayal combines musical flair with sharp legal acumen, lending a depth that resonates with audiences and peers alike.

Other Notable Nominees

Aunjanue Ellis‑Taylor merits a nod for her moving depiction in Nickel Boys, marking a deserved nomination within the category.

Projected Outcome

• Most Likely Winner: Zoe Saldana – Emilia Pérez
• Potential Runner‑up: Isabella Rossellini – Conclave
• Strongest Contender: Zoe Saldana – Emilia Pérez

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Anora – The Substance

Neon – Mubi

Nominees

• Anora (Sean Baker)
• The Brutalist (Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold)
• A Real Pain (Jesse Eisenberg)
• September 5 (Moritz Binder, Tim Fehlbaum, Alex David)
• The Substance (Coralie Fargeat)

Assessment

Choosing a clear winner is not straightforward.
Anora feels like an energetic triumph and merits the honor.
blends humor and emotion, leaving room for a surprising triumph.
The most heartfelt choice for Best Original Screenplay would be .
Its playful, engaging, and thought‑provoking nature achieves everything it sets out to accomplish, making Coralie Fargeat a strong candidate for the trophy.