Angola pushes gas gains as oil output stalls, OPEC exit impacts
Angola’s Shift to Natural Gas Fuels Economic Growth
Angola, the continent’s second-largest oil producer after Nigeria, is pivoting its energy strategy toward natural gas. The country forecasts a 20% rise in gas production over the next five years, driven by increased exports to Europe and Asia and by domestic demand. In contrast, oil output remains stagnant, leaving Angola vulnerable to subsidy cuts and market fluctuations.
Azule Energy Eyes Second Gas Exploration Well
Azule Energy, a joint venture between BP and Eni, led Angola’s first gas drilling campaign last month, successfully tapping the Gajajeira‑01 field. CEO Adriano Mongini told Reuters that a second well could be drilled within two years and that existing infrastructure near the first discovery may accelerate development. Initial estimates suggest Gajajeira‑01 holds more than one trillion cubic feet (tcf) of gas and up to 100 million barrels of condensate.
Government Outlook and Market Dynamics
Angola’s National Oil and Gas Agency (ANPG) forecasts gas output will climb from 2,973 to 3,659 million standard cubic feet per day (MMSCFD) by 2030. While the average this year might fall short, analysts see the government’s Sanha Lean gas project and the Azule‑led New Gas Consortium (NGC) as key drivers. Liquefied natural gas exports account for most of the gas trade, with India and Spain the top two markets.
Oil Production Stagnates in a Subsidy‑Cutting Environment
Oil output is projected to decline to just above 1 million barrels per day by 2027 from around 1.1 million barrels per day now, according to ANPG officials. The decline could be mitigated if investment and development plans are maintained. Angola anticipates $60 billion in oil and gas investments over the next five years, with 23 exploration wells expected to be drilled, 11 of them offshore.
Key Insights for Investors and Policy Makers
- Gas production is set to rise more than 20% in the next five years.
- Azule Energy is considering a second gas‑specific well, potentially within two years.
- Oil output may decline to just above 1 million barrels per day by 2027.
- Angola expects $60 billion in oil and gas investments over the next five years.
