ASML\’s profits soar, yet 2026 caution

ASML Double‑Earnings, Uncertain 2026 Road

Semiconductor‑equipment maker ASML logged a hefty jump in Q2 2025 net profit, but CEO Christophe Fouquet cautioned that geopolitical turbulence could dampen the 2026 outlook.

Q2 2025 Highlights

• Net profit: €2.3 billion (vs. €1.6 billion last year)
• Net sales: €7.7 billion, topping the €7.2‑€7.7 billion forecast band
• Net bookings: €5.6 billion (up from €3.9 billion in Q1)
• Projected Q3 sales: €7.4‑€7.9 billion

CEO’s 2026 Outlook

Fouquet pledged continued preparation for growth in 2026 but admitted that macro‑economic and geopolitical uncertainties meant the outlook could not yet be confirmed.

He echoed earlier April statements warning of “increased uncertainty” tied to tariff dynamics that might “remain dynamic for a while.”

AI Market Upswing

ASML sees the AI sector as an engine for long‑term sales, projecting revenues between €44 billion and €60 billion by 2030.

Fouquet emphasized the semiconductor market’s vitality and the “very strong” fundamentals surrounding AI.

Geopolitical Headwinds

Washington has tightened exports of cutting‑edge chips to China, citing concerns that they could bolster Beijing’s military capabilities and undermine U.S. leadership in AI.

In May, the Trump administration rolled back some export controls, yet new guidelines flagged use of Chinese high‑tech AI chips—particularly Huawei’s Ascend series—as risk of violating U.S. export rules.

Beijing denounced the warning as “typical unilateral bullying and protectionism.”

On Tuesday, U.S. chip titan Nvidia resumed sales of its H2O AI chips to China after Washington pledged to lift licensing curbs that had halted exports.

Bottom Line

ASML’s Q2 2025 results reflect robust profitability and sales momentum, yet geopolitical shifts and tariff dynamics create an uncertain 2026 trajectory despite strong AI market prospects.