China Exports Outpace June Forecasts After US Tariff Truce

June Exports outpace Expectations as US‑China Trade Tensions Ease

The General Administration of Customs reported that China’s exports rose 5.8 % year‑on‑year in June, exceeding the 5 % forecast in a Bloomberg survey. Import growth also outperformed predictions, climbing 1.1 % versus the 0.3 % estimate.

US‑China Tariff Dynamics

• Exports to the United States surged 32.4 % in June, reversing the decline seen the month before.
• Capital Economics’ Zichun Huang noted that the trade truce helped boost export values, though high tariffs remain a constraint.
• Pinpoint Asset Management’s Zhiwei Zhang highlighted a strategy of frontloading shipments to anticipate future tariff increases.

Implications for Economic Growth

The robust export figures are expected to partly offset weak domestic demand, keeping GDP growth around the 5 % target for the second quarter. However, analysts warn that the front‑loading effect may wane, raising uncertainty for the latter half of the year.

Domestic Demand Trends

• Consumer prices edged up in June, breaking a four‑month deflationary dip.
• Factory gate prices dropped at the fastest pace in nearly two years.
• Authorities introduced subsidies to boost retail activity, but the impact has been short‑lived.

Policy Outlook

China aims for a 5 % expansion in 2025, a target considered ambitious by many experts. The government’s current measures focus on shifting the growth engine toward domestic consumption rather than traditional drivers of infrastructure, manufacturing, and exports.