2024 Oscars Forecast: Who Will Claim the Top Honors and Does Oppenheimer Dominate?
Which Films Will Claim the Night’s Biggest Honors?
With the awards ceremony just hours away, the industry buzzes about who will walk away with the most prestigious trophies and which contender truly deserves the acclaim. While the press seats and spotlight scrutiny intensify, one question remains at the top of every conversation: will the powerful narrative of Oppenheimer dominate the evening’s accolades?
The Contest of Talent
- Best Picture: Anticipated nominees include a mix of dramatic and kinetic storytelling masterpieces.
- Best Director: Renowned auteurs are jostling for recognition with fresh, bold visions.
- Best Actor/Actress: Performances that redefined character arcs and emotional depth are on the radar.
- Special Mention: Technical excellence in visuals and soundscapes could tip the scales.
Is Oppenheimer’s Impact Unstoppable?
Standing at the threshold of this year’s awards, Oppenheimer stands out with its provocative storyline and sweeping cinematic scope. Industry insiders contemplate whether this film’s explosive narrative will tip the scales and claim each coveted award, or if other contenders will counterbalance its influence to deliver a memorable, multi-award night.
Glowing Forecasts for the 96th Academy Awards
It’s Sunday, the Oscars are open for business, and though you’ve caught every headline on the nominee lists, we’re ready to lay out our crystal‑ball audience: who will traverse the red carpet and who might just slip under the radar. The anticipation is electric, and there’s a story to play out.
Spotlight on the Main Event: Oppenheimer
- 13 nominations to date – the film tops the tally guard.
- Leading the charge in several headliners, most notably Best Picture.
- It promises a sweep, but the real drama might still surprise everyone.
The Unpredictable Element: The “Should Wins”
Even with giants in the mix, the Oscars can still defy the odds. If the night veers unexpectedly, deserving titles may find their own place in history.
Will Wins – The Expected Champions
- Best Picture: Oppenheimer – the box office and critical powerhouse.
- Best Director: Christopher Nolan – a proven track record of mastery.
- Best Original Score: Ludwig Göransson – renowned for dynamic, narrative‑tuned compositions.
- Best Cinematography: Roger Deakins – celebrated for atmospheric brilliance.
Should Wins – The Red‑Dawn Possibilities
- Best Actress: Emma Stone – her role in Woman in the Window bills a deserved capture.
- Best Supporting Actress: Rachel Weisz – repositioning Parallel into a top contender.
- Best Film Editing: Things We Do in the Dark – adds an edge of high‑stakes storytelling.
- Best Adapted Screenplay: Steven Soderbergh – a renewed potential with his latest project.
Unexpected Trajectories
While Oppenheimer might appear poised for dominance, other contenders stand poised to leak through – potentially dethroning Barbie from its poised perch. And pity or triumph could be awaiting Poor Things, a film craving a fresh voice in the accolade streets.
Final Note
The Academy’s judgment is elusive; the night may knot its saga with unexpected turns. Whether that storm will rally along the major protagonists or reward the quiet players we predicted, we’ll discover it as the ceremony unfurls.
BEST PICTURE
Oscar Nominations: Who’s Most Likely to Take Home the Trophy?
Best Picture Nominees
- American Fiction
- Anatomy of a Fall
- Barbie
- The Holdovers
- Killers of the Flower Moon
- Maestro
- Oppenheimer
- Past Lives
- Poor Things
- The Zone of Interest
Current frontrunner by all accounts is Christopher Nolan’s biopic Oppenheimer. The dense, haunting narrative and meticulous performances have snared the hearts of many voters, turning the film into the clear leader of the year. While the initial buzz suggested a head‑to‑head between Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon, the former’s momentum now seems unstoppable.
Nonetheless, the awards night remains open to surprises. If Past Lives or the unsettling The Zone of Interest manage to upset the established order, they could turn the evening into a memorable up‑set. The often‑overlooked The Holdovers is also gaining traction as a relatable, heart‑warmingly positive contender that might sway the vote.
In the end, this might very well be a year that’s Christopher Nolan’s. The fanfare for his masterstroke could keep echoing long after the ceremony ends. While the victory feels well deserved, the outcome has been foretelling for some time.
Predicted Winner
Oppenheimer – poised to clinch the award.
Film Likely to Earn a Well‑Deserved Win
The Zone of Interest – a strong contender for recognition.
BEST DIRECTOR
Christopher Nolan to Take Home the Honorary César Award at Paris’s 49th Ceremony
Backdrop of the Night
On a star‑filled evening in Paris, the César ceremony honored director Christopher Nolan with an honorary award, a testament to his impact on international cinema.
Esteemed Nominees for Best Director
- Justine Triet – Anatomy of a Fall
- Martin Scorsese – Killers of the Flower Moon
- Christopher Nolan – Oppenheimer
- Yorgos Lanthimos – Poor Things
- Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest
Each director brought a distinctive vision to the screen, making the competition exceptionally strong.
Why Nolan Stands Out
While all nominees delivered compelling storytelling, Nolan’s Oppenheimer shines as a masterful blend of narrative depth and technical brilliance. The film’s balanced pacing and precise historical portrayal set it apart.
Predictions & Expectations
Despite Martin Scorsese’s prominent standing in the industry, the consensus leans towards Nolan clinching the award. However, critics increasingly admire Glazer’s nuanced exploration of The Zone of Interest, hinting at a possible surprise.
Concluding Thoughts
With Nolan’s track record and the film’s flawless execution, expectations suggest he will bring home the César, yet the cinematic community remains open to unexpected outcomes.
BEST ACTOR
Cillian Murphy Shines at the SAG Awards
During this year’s SAG Awards, the spotlight on Cillian Murphy was unmistakable. His nomination for Best Actor, competing against the likes of Bradley Cooper, Colman Domingo, Paul Giamatti, and Jeffrey Wright, positioned him as a prime contender for the coveted accolade.
Nominee Highlights
- Bradley Cooper – Maestro
- Colman Domingo – Rustin
- Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
- Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
- Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
Why Murphy Is the Likely Winner
When it comes to predicting the outcome, circumstances favor Cillian Murphy. He has already earned multiple international awards, including Golden Globes, BAFTAs, and previous SAG recognitions, affirming his talent and appeal within the industry. His portrayal of J. Robert Oppenheimer in Oppenheimer is the most substantial role he has ever undertaken on the big screen, and the performance’s intensity resonates strongly with critics and audiences alike.
Comparative Analysis
While Paul Giamatti has long been a respected figure in critical circles, his performance in The Holdovers—though undeniably refined—does not have the same visceral impact as Murphy’s cinematic debut. In contrast, Bradley Cooper faced criticism for unwanted acclaim and was a topic of debate among social media users. Despite his accomplishments, he may not capture the jury’s favour in this category.
Conclusion
With a track record that includes multiple performance accolades, Cillian Murphy’s recognition at this year’s SAG Awards appears inevitable. The acclaim surrounding his work in Oppenheimer positions him strongly as the winner in the Best Actor category.
BEST ACTRESS
Oscars Best Actress Contest: The Final Showdown
As the Academy gathers for the most awaited category of the evening, the fight for Best Actress has narrowed to an intense duel between two standout performances.
Nominees
- Annette Bening – Nyad
- Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
- Sandra Hüller – Anatomy of a Fall
- Carey Mulligan – Maestro
- Emma Stone – Poor Things
Key Contestants
The spotlight is on Emma Stone and Lily Gladstone. Stone walked away with the Golden Globe for best comedic performance, the Critics Choice Award, and a BAFTA for her role in Poor Things. Gladstone, meanwhile, captured the Globe for drama and the SAG Award for Killers of the Flower Moon. Even though Stone’s accolades hinted at a lead, the shift to the Best Actress category suddenly tilted the scales.
Historic Achievement for Gladstone
Gladstone becomes the first Native American actress ever to be nominated for Best Actress. Her portrayal is lauded as a cornerstone of Scorsese’s sweeping narrative, earning her both critical acclaim and a place in cinematic history.
Stone’s Bold Performance
Stone’s character is celebrated for its daring originality, making her one of the most inventive performances of the year among the finalists.
Other Competing Talents
European audiences rally behind Sandra Hüller, while Annette Bening continues to push her fifth nomination, a testament to her consistent presence in the Oscars corridor. Hollywood’s propensity to bestow honorary lifetime awards keeps Bening’s name alive in the conversation.
Verdict Prediction
The tension of the race suggests that the Academy may favor introducing fresh talent. With Gladstone’s first win at stake and Stone’s already proven track record, it leans toward Lily Gladstone securing the Best Actress trophy.
Who Will Take the Award?
Lily Gladstone – Killers of the Flower Moon
Who Should Have Won?
Emma Stone – Poor Things
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Robert Downey Jr. Shines Amid This Year’s SAG Awards
In a season heavy with predictions, the spotlight has largely been on the support category winners, but the drama for the leading roles remains fresh and uncertain. Meanwhile, the support categories have largely settled into a clear pattern.
Nomination Highlights
- Sterling K. Brown – American Fiction
- Robert De Niro – Killers of the Flower Moon
- Ryan Gosling – Barbie
- Robert Downey Jr. – Oppenheimer
- Mark Ruffalo – Poor Things
Robert Downey Jr.: A Season’s Standout
From the start of the awards season, RDJ has dominated discussions for the supporting role ensemble, positioned as the front runner for his portrayal of Lewis Strauss, the political antagonist in Steven Spielberg’s Oppenheimer. The role is compelling—envisioning a man who rises from a once-ostracized reputation to a position of prominence. In a narrative arc reminiscent of his own journey from controversy to becoming the face of Marvel, RDJ delivers a performance laden with nuance, securing a natural fit for the series of awards.
Mark Ruffalo: The Unexpected Contender
While RDJ’s opportunity seemed almost inevitable, the audience was equally captivated by Mark Ruffalo’s comedic portrayal in Poor Things. His character’s delightfulness and timing have left many fans and critics alike wishing he would clinch the award. However, the majority consensus has tilted toward RDJ for this particular season.
Winning Outlook
Current predictions lean toward Robert Downey Jr. for Oppenheimer as the official winner.
Preferred Choice
Many voices continue to advocate for Mark Ruffalo for Poor Things, hoping his humor will secure the accolade.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Da’Vine Joy Randolph Glows at the 2024 BAFTA Awards
In a ceremony that celebrated cinematic excellence, Da’Vine Joy Randolph took center stage, showcasing her distinguished performance in The Holdovers. The seasoned actress has garnered widespread acclaim for her nuanced portrayal of a grieving chef, a role that has sparked conversations across international film circles.
Nominees for Best Actress
- Emily Blunt – Oppenheimer
- Danielle Brooks – The Color Purple
- America Ferrara – Barbie
- Jodie Foster – Nyad
- Da’Vine Joy Randolph – The Holdovers
Like the iconic performances of past winners, Randolph’s interpretation has been praised for its depth and authenticity. Critics argue that her journey from a somber kitchen to an emotionally resonant screen has set a new benchmark in storytelling.
Prediction
With the momentum built from earlier accolades, many predict that Da’Vine Joy Randolph will clinch the award on Sunday, adding another prestigious title to her growing list of achievements.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Anatomy of a Fall: The 2025 Screenplay Showdown
Nominees
- Justine Triet & Arthur Harari – Anatomy of a Fall
- David Hemingson – The Holdovers
- Bradley Cooper & Josh Singer – Maestro
- Samy Burch – May December
- Celine Song – Past Lives
Why the Year is Notable
With three women writers in the mix, this year sets a record for the category. All contenders are strong, but Anatomy of a Fall stands out as the likely winner of its sole Oscar in this field.
Historical Context
Had last year’s Palme d’Or winner been chosen as France’s international entry, it would have dominated the selection. Now, Best Original Screenplay appears to be the ticket for Anatomy of a Fall, potentially making it the first French screenplay to win since Claude Lelouch’s A Man and A Woman (1966).
Key Rivals
- The Holdovers – touching yet funny, it remains a serious contender.
- May December – though well‑received, it likely will leave empty‑handed.
Our Prediction
For the Oscar win, we place our bet on Justine Triet and Arthur Harari for Anatomy of a Fall, given the screenplay’s poetic dialogue and compelling thematic punches.
People We Think Deserve Recognition
While May December may not win, its narrative depth and emotional nuance make it a film that deserves more acclaim.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
Stellar Screenplay Competition: Who Will Take the Oscar?
Current Nominees:
- Cord Jefferson – American Fiction
- Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach – Barbie
- Chris Nolan – Oppenheimer
- Tony McNamara – Poor Things
- Jonathan Glazer – The Zone of Interest
The Unexpected Wildcard: Barbie
Barbie finds its place in the Adapted Screenplay category simply because the film relies on pre‑existing characters. With the movie having been passed over for Best Director and Best Actress, a win here feels plausible – especially if voters want to balance the appeal to a broad audience.
Statistical Strong Contenders
Traditionally, the Best Picture winner also claims the Writing award. Over the past five years, this correlation has occurred in four cases. Given that trend, many expect the award to go to Chris Nolan’s Oppenheimer.
Other Likely Candidates
- Cord Jefferson – whose script for American Fiction has already earned Critics’ Choice, Indie Spirits, and BAFTAs.
- Tony McNamara – for his daring adaptation of Alasdair Gray’s novel Poor Things.
- Jonathan Glazer – offering what critics call the most sophisticated book‑to‑screen rendition of Martin Amis’s The Zone of Interest.
Bottom Line
While the market favors Oppenheimer as the most probable victor, the category remains open to a surprise. Keep an eye on Barbie and The Zone of Interest for unexpected twists.
BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE FILM
Who Will Take Home the Academy Award for Best International Feature?
The 2024 competition for Best International Feature Film has gathered a compelling lineup of five submissions, each boldening its bid for Hollywood’s top honor:
- Io Capitano – Italy
- Perfect Days – Japan
- Society of the Snow – Spain
- The Teachers’ Lounge – Germany
- The Zone of Interest – United Kingdom
Why the UK’s Entry Stands Out
While the French entry “Taste of Things” had previously eclipsed “Anatomy of a Fall,” audiences and critics alike have felt a mild disappointment. The prestigious Palme d’Or‑winning “Justine Triet” had a strong leading‑roster tour through awards season, starring the brilliant actress in a role that made the film a natural contender. Yet the UK submission “The Zone of Interest” has consistently outshone its competitors in box office, critical reception, and buzz, positioning it as the most likely champion.
Watch Out for a Surprising Upset
Behind the leading edge lies a near‑miss from seasoned director Wim Wenders, whose new feature “Perfect Days” is a compelling return to narrative filmmaking after a decade. Though the film delivers stunning visuals and thoughtful storytelling, it appears to be a runner‑up, with the spotlight remaining firmly on the UK’s sweeping achievement.
In Summary
The Greater Voice of the People:
- Winner Expected: The Zone of Interest
- Strong Alternative: Perfect Days
- Supporting Competitors: Io Capitano, Society of the Snow, The Teachers’ Lounge
As the voting panel convenes, all eyes will be on the United Kingdom’s impressive narrative, with a nod to the balanced performances and swift artistry proded by the other entries.
BEST DOCUMENTARY
Oscar Nominations: A Tale of Conflict and Courage
Nominees in the Best International Feature race include:
- “Bobi Wine: The People’s President”
- “The Eternal Memory”
- “Four Daughters”
- “To Kill a Tiger”
- “20 Days in Mariupol”
Why “20 Days in Mariupol” Stands Out
Directed by Mstyslav Chernov, this film offers a powerful, visceral look at the ongoing war in Ukraine. Its timely portrayal of civilian resilience has positioned it as a front‑running contender for the award. The Academy’s recent history of honoring films that confront political oppression—such as the last year’s win for a Patriot of Russia in the context of Navalny’s story—suggests a continued appetite for storytelling that challenges authoritarian narratives.
Competitive Edge of “Four Daughters”
While “20 Days in Mariupol” is a strong favourite, “Four Daughters” holds its own as a compelling narrative from Kaouther Ben Hania’s perspective. Should voters look beyond the war‑focused entries, this film could capture the Academy’s attention with its emotional depth and nuanced character arcs.
Predicted Winners
Most Likely to Win: “20 Days in Mariupol”
Strong Contender: “Four Daughters”
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Oscars 2024: The Final Countdown
As the clock ticks toward the Academy Awards, expectations are high for a night of spectacle and drama. Below is a refreshed look at the frontrunners for each major category—an updated forecast that captures the excitement of the moment.
Best Animated Feature
- Top Pick: Spider‑Man: Across the Spider‑Verse – a vivid, genre‑blending adventure that stands out in the U.S. market.
- Strong Contender: Robot Dreams – a heartfelt story that could claim the award in its own right.
Best Cinematography
- Projected Winner: Oppenheimer (Hoyte van Hoytema)
- Solid Candidate: Same as above – the film’s visual mastery is hard to top.
Best Film Editing
- Projected Winner: Oppenheimer (Jennifer Lame)
- Strong Candidate: Killers of the Flower Moon (Thelma Shoonmaker)
Best Production Design
- Projected Winner: Barbie (Sarah Greenwood & Katie Spencer)
- Solid Candidate: Poor Things (Shona Heath, James Price, Zsuzsa Mihalek)
Best Visual Effects
- Projected Winner: The Creator (Jay Cooper, Ian Comley, Andrew Roberts, Neil Corbould)
- Strong Candidate: Godzilla Minus One (Takashi Yamazaki, Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi, Tatsuji Nojima)
Best Sound
- Projected Winner: Oppenheimer (Willie Burton, Richard King, Kevin O’Connell, Gary A. Rizzo)
- Strong Candidate: The Zone of Interest (Johnnie Burn, Tarn Willers)
Best Original Score
- Projected Winner: Oppenheimer (Ludwig Göransson)
- Strong Candidate: Same composer – the score is a standout contender.
Best Original Song
- Projected Winner: Barbie – “What Was I Made For?” (Billie Eilish & Finneas O’Connell)
- Strong Candidate: Killers of the Flower Moon – “Wahzhazhe (A Song for My People)” (Scott George)
Best Costume Design
- Projected Winner: Barbie (Jacqueline Durran)
- Strong Candidate: Poor Things (Holly Waddington)
Best Makeup & Hairstyling
- Projected Winner: Maestro (Kazu Hiro, Kay Georgiou, Lori McCoy-Bell)
- Same as above: The team’s work is strongly favored.
Best Animated Short
- Projected Winner: WAR IS OVER! Inspired by the Music of John and Yoko
- Strong Candidate: Letter To A Pig
Best Live Action Short
- Projected Winner: The Wonderful Story Of Henry Sugar
- Strong Candidate: The Wonderful Life Of Henry Sugar
Best Documentary Short
- Projected Winner: The ABCs Of Book Banning
- Strong Candidate: The Last Repair Shop
Stay in the Loop
For live commentary, extend your reach with Euronews Culture this Sunday evening. Dive deeper with our “Road To The Oscars” articles for notes on themes ranging from international affairs to film design.
